Tesla (TSLA) Strategic Analysis
1.Introduction
1.1 Overview
Tesla represents a unique convergence of automotive manufacturing, energy infrastructure, and artificial intelligence. This report breaks down the valuation and strategic outlook for each of its core business pillars.
1.2 Investment Thesis
We believe the market continues to undervalue the optionality embedded in Tesla's AI and robotics ventures, specifically Robotaxi and Optimus, while focusing too heavily on short-term automotive gross margins. In our base case, EPS acceleration begins during 2027, and the PER can expand roughly two quarters (about six months) earlier as the market discounts that earnings inflection in advance.
2.Auto
2.1 Delivery Projections
Automotive deliveries are expected to stabilize with a CAGR of 15-20% as the next-generation platform comes online. The focus shifts from pure volume growth to fleet monetization.
2.1.1 Model Y
Model Y continues to be the best-selling vehicle globally. Refresh (Juniper) is expected to sustain demand.
2.1.2 Cybertruck
Cybertruck production ramp is proceeding, with profitability expected by end of year.
2.2 Margins & Profitability
COGS reduction remains a priority. We anticipate auto gross margins to recover to the mid-20s percentage range as capacity utilization improves and battery costs decline.
3.Energy
3.1 Storage Growth
The energy storage business, led by Megapack, is growing at a triple-digit pace. It is poised to become a significant contributor to free cash flow, potentially rivaling the automotive business in profitability.
3.2 Solar
Solar deployments remain volatile but serve as a strategic complement to the storage ecosystem.
4.Robotaxi
4.1 Network Economics
The dedicated Robotaxi vehicle will unlock a cost-per-mile that undercuts traditional ride-hailing and personal car ownership. This section models the potential take rates and revenue per mile.
4.2 Timeline
Regulatory approval remains the primary bottleneck. We analyze state-by-state rollout scenarios.
5.Optimus
5.1 Specifications
Optimus Gen 2 demonstrates significant improvements in actuation and tactile sensing. The rate of improvement suggests utility in factory settings within 12-24 months.
5.2 TAM Analysis
The Total Addressable Market for general-purpose humanoid robots is effectively labor itself. Even a small penetration into dangerous or repetitive tasks represents a trillion-dollar opportunity.
6.FSD
6.1 Version History
FSD v12's move to end-to-end neural networks marks a step change in capability. Intervention rates are dropping rapidly.
6.2 Licensing Opportunities
Tesla is in talks with major OEMs to license FSD. This high-margin software revenue stream could fundamentally alter the company's valuation multiple.