LITHIUM AMERICAS / NYSE: LAC

What is Thacker Pass worth?

A Phase 1 cash flow model. Follow the path from lithium prices and construction costs to LAC's share of the project.

USD throughoutValuation date: 30 Jun 2026Sources reviewed: 1 Oct 2026

01 / ASSUMPTIONS

Build your scenario

Illustrative base case. All assumptions are editable.

Scenarios change price, cash cost, first production, ramp, discount rate and remaining capex. Other inputs stay as entered.

First production year. Scenario assumption, not a spot quote.
Phase 1 estimate; excludes royalties and sustaining capital.
Assumed project WACC. Test execution risk in the scenarios.
2028 ramp guidance; end-of-year cash flow convention. [1]
Production & operating assumptions
Phase 1 only. Expansion capacity and capex are excluded. [1]
Finite forecast horizon; no terminal value.
Assumed ramp; percentage of nameplate.
100% from Year 3; assumed, not company guidance.
Compounds after the first production year.
Cash cost, sustaining capital and Orion fixed fee proxy.
Positive EBIT only; no loss carryforwards or tax credits.
Simplified tax deduction; not a statutory depreciation schedule.
Construction, sustaining capital & royalties
Assumption above $1,288.8m residual base budget. Sunk spend excluded. [1]
Full annual spend from first production, inflated thereafter.
Incremental investment, released at the end of mine life.
Assumed final-year nominal cash outflow.
Assumes exercise of the royalty buyback. Revenue proxy for GOR. [2]
One cash outflow before production; no duplicate royalty liability. [2]
Ownership, balance sheet & dilution
62% × 95%, assuming exercise of DOE JV warrants. [2]
June 30, 2026 snapshot. [2]
DOE corporate warrant shares; nominal proceeds ignored. [2]
Share-count stress only; adds no funding proceeds.
100% JV amount; ownership applied once. [1]
Accounts payable $101.3m plus accrued liabilities $123.3m. Deducted at face value. [2]
DOE gross principal $1,209m plus $21.151m accrued interest. [2]
Derived: total $1,279.190m less JV $530.3m. [1] [2]
Orion principal including PIK. Kept as debt, not conversion shares. [2]
Assumed level cash expense; no parent tax shield.
First 18 operating years; inflation proxy applied. [3]
Parent pays on full project output, using tiered reference prices. [3]

Modeled LAC equity / share

PendingPhase 1 DCF with an equity bridge

Project NPV

Pending100% interest, after remaining capex

Year 3 project EBITDA

PendingBefore financing and parent payments
A dated scenario, not a live price target. This uses the 30 June balance sheet. Subsequent financing, including the August Yorkville debentures, is excluded. Update the cash, debt and share inputs together to model a later date. Future phases, tax credits and statutory tax detail are outside this model.

From project value to equity

Equity bridge, USD millions

JV cash, debt and opening payables are adjusted for LAC's interest once. Corporate costs and Orion payments are deducted at the parent level.

What does your reference price imply?

Manual comparison only. No live market quote is supplied.
Model vs. reference
Enter a price
Implied lithium price
Enter a price

Reverse DCF changes only the first-production lithium price. All other assumptions stay fixed.

02 / SENSITIVITY

Price and risk move the outcome

Modeled equity value per share. Rows vary lithium price; columns vary the discount rate. The outlined cell is your current case.

USD / LAC share

03 / CASH FLOWS

Construction first. Cash generation later.

Annual unlevered project cash flow at 100% interest, before corporate costs and Orion payments. Values in USD millions.

See the annual calculation
H2 2026 followed by full calendar years. USD millions except volume and price.
YearTonnesLi price, $/tRevenueEBITDACash taxConstructionSustainingΔ NWCBuyback / closureProject FCFPV of FCFParent Orion

04 / SOURCES & METHOD

Know what is fact and what is assumed

Company disclosures

40,000 t/year Phase 1 capacity, 2028 production ramp, ownership, cash, drawn debt and warrant terms are anchored to the linked filings. Financial balances are frozen at 30 June 2026.

The $2,930m base construction estimate less $1,621.7m capitalized construction costs and $19.5m of included community contributions leaves $1,288.8m. The default $1,500m remaining capex adds an assumed contingency. Opening JV payables of $224.6m are deducted separately because capitalized costs include unpaid bills.

Editable modeling judgments

Lithium price, $7,000/t Phase 1 cash cost, ramp percentages, $35m sustaining capital, tax, depreciation, discount rate, overhead and closure cost are assumptions. The published $6,238/t cost covers multiple phases and is not used as a Phase 1 forecast. Technical report summary.

The model is for exploring sensitivities. It does not establish a trading recommendation or account for every financing and tax provision.

Calculation conventions and limitations
  • Project FCF = revenue less cash costs, project royalty, cash taxes, sustaining capital, remaining construction, changes in working capital, royalty buyback and closure. D&A reduces taxable income but is not a cash outflow.
  • Year-end discount periods start at 0.5 years from 30 June 2026. Remaining construction is spread evenly before production, with a half-year weight for 2026. Production life begins in the first production year; no terminal or salvage value is added.
  • Default 58.9% economic interest assumes DOE's JV warrant is exercised. Corporate DOE warrants are added separately to common shares. Orion notes stay in parent debt; conversion shares are excluded to avoid counting the claim twice. This is a modeled share count, not a fully diluted count: equity awards and subsequent convertible financings are also excluded.
  • Future loan draws are not added to value. Existing cash, outstanding debt and opening JV payables enter the equity bridge; interest on future borrowing is represented by the discount rate, not deducted again from unlevered cash flow.
  • Orion's PPA is a parent obligation on full project output, deducted after ownership. The fixed payment lasts 18 operating years. Tiered reference prices apply above $25,000/t and $35,000/t. The cost-inflation input is a proxy for fixed-fee indexation starting in the first production year. Contractual total-cost step-ups, pre-production indexation, delayed-draw step-ups and quarterly details are excluded. [3]
  • The 1.75% royalty assumes a $22m buyback before production. If you remove the buyback, update the royalty rate as well. Revenue approximates the contract's royalty base. The separate royalty and PPA accounting liabilities are not deducted again.
  • Tax is applied to positive project EBIT without loss carryforwards, accelerated depreciation, 45X credits or parent deductions. Sustaining capex is not reduced during ramp. Corporate overhead remains level. Working capital is fully released in the last modeled year. Opening JV payables are deducted at face value in the equity bridge; other opening noncash working-capital balances and parent operating liabilities are not modeled.
  • Negative signed equity values remain visible in the bridge; the modeled common-share value is floored at zero. This does not model restructuring, new financing or the option to shut down.
  1. LAC Q2 2026 results13 Aug 2026. Project timeline, capacity, cash and capitalized construction costs.
  2. LAC Form 10-Q, period ended 30 Jun 2026Share capital, DOE claims, Orion notes, JV and royalty terms.
  3. Orion production payment agreement1 Apr 2025. Parent payment obligation and reference-price tiers.
  4. August 2026 financing updateSubsequent financing excluded from this June balance sheet scenario.

05 / LAR COMPARISON

A different stage of lithium exposure

Lithium Argentina owns 44.8% of Caucharí-Olaroz. Compare current operating exposure using the same lithium price, without treating 100% of mine output as LAR's earnings.

40,000 t nameplate; 2026 guidance 35,000 to 40,000 t.
Q2 2026 reported C1 cost. Editable scenario input.

LAR share of cash margin

Pending(Lithium price less C1 cost) × volume × 44.8%

C1-based proxy before tax, capex, corporate costs and financing. This is an operating proxy, not net income or a share-price target. Expansion projects are excluded.

Source: Lithium Argentina Q2 2026 results, 11 Aug 2026

LAC / LAR research background

Leverage Futures Independent Research

LAC/LAR: What Matters Most

For both names, value is driven by the same basics: can projects ramp on time, stay on cost, and earn enough through the lithium price cycle?

Coverage

NYSE: LAC / NYSE: LAR

Main Driver

Ramp timing + lithium prices

Valuation Window

Long-term scenarios

Base Case

  • LAC works if Thacker Pass ramps on time and on budget.
  • LAR has earlier cash flow, but more sovereign and FX risk.
  • Both names stay highly leveraged to lithium pricing.

Upside

  • Ramp milestones and utilization improve quickly.
  • Financing and permitting risk falls.
  • Lithium prices recover above incentive levels.

Risk

  • Capex overruns or ramp delays can destroy value.
  • Policy and macro instability can hit export economics.
  • Weak lithium prices can compress returns for years.

For information purposes only, not investment advice.

LAC/LAR Long-Form Pair Wiki

An extended reference note comparing development-stage and operating-stage lithium exposure. Use this as background alongside the model and dated source notes.

1. Pair Thesis Overview

The LAC/LAR pair represents two different ways to express a long-term lithium view: one via development and construction execution (LAC), and one via operating ramp and country risk management (LAR). Both are highly sensitive to realized price paths, but timing and risk vectors differ materially.

2. Corporate Split Context

After the corporate separation, each entity became more transparent but also more exposed to single-asset concentration. This increases analytical clarity while reducing diversification benefits that previously softened project-specific volatility.

3. LAC Asset Profile (Thacker Pass)

LAC is mainly a project execution story. Value creation depends on commissioning timeline, capex control, and the pace at which operating metrics approach design assumptions.

  • Upside path: on-time ramp with disciplined capex and improving unit costs.
  • Downside path: schedule slippage and higher financing burden before cash generation.

4. LAR Asset Profile (Cauchari-Olaroz)

LAR offers earlier production visibility but introduces greater macro complexity through jurisdictional, currency, and policy channels. Operational consistency and cost stability are key for sustained market confidence.

5. Lithium Price Framework

Price assumptions are the dominant valuation variable. Rather than relying on a single long-term number, this wiki uses bands linked to incentive pricing, project economics, and cycle duration.

The practical approach is to test multiple price regimes and evaluate whether each company's capital structure can absorb prolonged weak periods.

6. Cost Curve and Margins

Unit margins should be evaluated against all-in sustaining economics, not only cash costs. During weak price periods, small cost differences can create large divergence in equity outcomes.

  • Operating cost variance by processing route and recovery assumptions.
  • Energy, reagent, logistics, and labor inflation exposure.
  • Royalty/tax structure influence on realized equity margin.

7. Financing and Balance Sheet

Funding path is critical for both companies. Equity dilution, partner structures, debt terms, and staged capex timing all influence per-share value more than headline NPV figures suggest.

8. Scenario Matrix

Scenario Lithium Price Regime LAC Read-Through LAR Read-Through
Bull Sustained high incentive-supportive pricing. High operating leverage to successful ramp. Strong cash generation and faster balance-sheet improvement.
Base Moderate pricing with cyclical volatility. Value depends on execution quality and financing discipline. Stable operations with uneven quarterly realized prices.
Bear Prolonged weak pricing environment. Higher financing/dilution pressure before full ramp. Margin compression with greater macro-policy sensitivity.

9. Monitoring Checklist

  • Construction and commissioning milestones versus prior guidance.
  • Cash cost and realized pricing spread trends by quarter.
  • Funding updates, partner changes, and capital-structure revisions.
  • Policy, currency, and logistics developments in operating regions.

10. Risks and Method Notes

The largest errors usually come from overconfidence in single-point price assumptions and underestimation of execution timelines. This long-form wiki is meant to keep the model anchored to explicit drivers and scenario discipline.

Document intent: independent research context for model users. Not investment advice.

Model Status: Coverage is in active build-out. Inputs and operating assumptions are updated as project-level disclosures are released.

LAC: Powering America's EV Future from Nevada

Lithium Americas (LAC) controls the Thacker Pass project in Nevada, one of the largest known lithium resources in the U.S. The asset is strategically positioned to support the North American EV supply chain and may benefit from U.S. policy incentives. Key watch items include project execution, capital intensity, and the pace of ramp-up.

LAR: Tapping the Heart of the Lithium Triangle

Lithium Argentina (LAR) operates the Caucharí‑Olaroz brine operation in the Lithium Triangle. The site is already producing and focused on stable ramp-up and potential expansions. Investors should track operating costs, FX and sovereign risk, and the company’s capital allocation priorities.

Company overview comparison
Feature LAC (Lithium Americas) LAR (Lithium Argentina)
Ticker NYSE:LAC NYSE:LAR
Jurisdiction 🇺🇸 USA (Nevada) 🇦🇷 Argentina
Primary Asset Thacker Pass Caucharí-Olaroz
Stage Development Production / Ramp-up
Key Opportunity Domestic supply, strategic scale Proven Production, Expansion
Primary Risk Project Execution & CAPEX Geopolitical & Economic

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LAC / LAR AI Analyst

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